AVAX Price Prediction: Avalanche Faces Heavy Short Interest With Risk of 18% Drop

This article was first published on Deythere.

The native token of the Avalanche network, AVAX, is under bearish pressure as traders are shorting and on-chain metrics are negative. Liquidity zones at $16.79 and $17.65 have heavy short interest, meaning a drop of up to 18% could be in play.

Though charts reveal it’s still in a descending channel since October; however, some technicals like the Supertrend have flipped green, showing a glimmer of hope for AVAX price prediction.

Market Behaviour and On-Chain Signals

Traders are over-leveraged at key levels for $AVAX. At $16.79 (lower band) and $17.65 (upper band) there’s $1.07m long vs $4.15m short, meaning sellers are in control.

Derivatives data from CryptoQuant shows taker sell orders are more than buys over the past week, so the bearish narrative is strong.

CoinGlass also shows a strong short bias among futures traders. As a result, $AVAX’s next move may not be driven by fundamentals but by deleveraging and liquidation cascades.

Technically, $AVAX is in a descending channel on the charts. It just tested the upper band and responded with a bearish candle, showing the down-trend is still intact unless broken. Volume is low hence conviction is low. ADX is 20.35, below the 25 threshold for strong trends, meaning directional momentum is weak.

Expert AVAX Price Prediction: Where Could AVAX Go?

Here are recent notable forecasts for AVAX:

Across the board; the consensus is that $AVAX might not go much higher without a strong breakout trigger; many are projecting a range of $15-$30 in the short term.

Bull, Base and Bear Cases for $AVAX Price Prediction

In the Bear Case; If traders keep adding shorts and the channel holds, $AVAX could go down to the lower support zones near $14.00 or lower.

Experts suggest an 18% drop from $18.00 brings $AVAX to $14.76. More downside could happen if broader crypto sentiment weakens or big liquidations hit. Failing to reclaim $18.00 will keep the bears in control.

In the Base Case; $AVAX settles into a stabilized routine at $17-$20, absorbing its recent losses and defusing short-selling pressure. Gradually, accumulation might start to happen, but a major breakthrough might not be on the cards until Q1 2026.

In this scenario, $AVAX winds up 2025 at $18-$20, aligning with what many experts have been forecasting ($18.08 on average). Liquidity zones are respected and the price just drifts sideways.

In the Bull Case; a major partnership, a new subnet announcement, or a big institutional token-buying drive could suddenly propel $AVAX out of that descending channel. Buy-up momentum starts to push price above $20-$22 and it could even shoot towards $30+.

The BraveNewCoin view of $45 target is a perfect example of this kind of scenario. If network growth takes off and $AVAX becomes hot again, a year-end price of above $30 might not be out of the question.

Conclusion

Taking a close look at current data and forecasts, the most likely outcome for $AVAX by the end of 2025 appears to line up with the base case: a range near $18-$20. That is a relatively modest bit of upside from the current levels. There’s still a strong chance that things could go wrong given the short-selling pressure.

A breakout above the descending channel would be needed to really kick-start the bull case, but until then; the price is likely to stay stuck in a sideways or downward route.

Meanwhile, the experts’ table shows a big spread from $16 in the cautious zone all the way to $30 in the bull zone. Investors are advised to keep an eye on short interest, channel breakouts, volume expansion, and institutional buying/selling activity as major signals.

The descending channel remains the boundary the market is awaiting for the price to break;  and reclaiming and holding above $18.00 is the first step towards invalidating the bear scenario.

Glossary

Descending channel: A chart pattern where highs and lows keep trending downwards in parallel lines. 

Supertrend indicator: A technical tool that shows on the chart and signals the direction of the trend – when it’s green it usually means the trend is up.

ADX (Average Directional Index): A tool that measures how strong the trend is.

Short interest: When traders borrow an asset to sell it in the hope of buying it back at a lower price 

Liquidity zone: Price levels where a lot of orders are stacked up and can trigger a really big price move when they get hit.

Frequently Asked Questions About $AVAX Price Prediction

What’s the outlook for $AVAX price prediction in the short term?

In the short term, $AVAX faces a possible drop all the way down to around $14 if the descending channel holds and the short-sellers keep pushing.

Can $AVAX still hit $30 by the end of 2025?

Yes, but only if all the right conditions align like a breakout above current resistance, higher volume and a positive catalyst. 

What would kill off the bearish scenario for AVAX?

If the market sees a sustained move above $18-$20 and a break out of the descending channel with some actual volume, that would really start to weaken the bearish case.

What could stall this AVAX predictions?

Factors at play include market sentiment, network growth, macro-economics and all the technical triggers that come into play.