A new study by the independent think tank, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), reveals that the campaign promises of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could add trillions of dollars to the U.S. national debt.
CRFB’s Projections
According to CRFB, Trump’s tax and spending plans could increase the debt by approximately $7.5 trillion over the next decade, while Harris’ plans could add $3.5 trillion during the same period. Combined, their proposals are projected to increase the national debt by nearly $11 trillion.
The CRFB emphasizes that both candidates’ policies would lead to debt and deficit growth beyond current projections. The study highlights Trump’s extensive tax cuts and increased defense spending, as well as Harris’ proposals to expand child tax credits and increase healthcare spending.
Key Proposals
For Harris, expanding child tax credits, increasing support for housing and healthcare, boosting border security, and expanding education are significant policy areas. Trump’s plans focus on extending tax cuts, introducing new corporate tax breaks, increasing defense spending, and adopting stricter immigration policies—all contributing to debt growth.
The CRFB analysis warns, “The large and growing size of our national debt could slow economic growth, raise interest rates, and weaken national security. Yet, none of the major 2024 presidential candidates have presented a plan to address this growing debt burden.”
Debt Impact and Mitigation Measures
The CRFB uses a wide range of potential outcomes based on the candidates’ campaign promises. Trump’s policies could increase the debt by between $1.45 trillion and $15.15 trillion, while Harris’ plans are estimated to add between $0 and $8.1 trillion.
Both candidates have proposed measures to offset some of the debt increases. Harris suggests raising corporate taxes and taxing high-income households, while Trump plans to implement new tariffs and cut certain expenditures to balance the debt.
If these plans are enacted, the U.S. national debt is expected to rise significantly. Both candidates’ efforts to mitigate debt through similar strategies could have important consequences for economic and financial stability.
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national debt, tax cuts, spending plans, economic growth, defense spending
