After reaching $2.61 on May 13, its highest level in over 2 months, XRP price is back in the market talks. With a big jump in spot and derivatives volume and growing interest from retail and institutional traders, XRP is really gaining momentum. This breakout has everyone wondering if XRP can break past $3 and go back to its all time highs. At the time of this publication however, XRP price stands at $2.51.
According to CoinGlass, XRP’s 24-hour spot volume surged 193.5% to $10.83 billion. Derivatives volume was even higher, up 237% with open interest at $5.23 billion. When spot and futures volume increase together like this, it’s a sign of strong conviction from investors.
Technical Points to More Upside: Elliott Wave Forecast Looks Good
On the technical side, XRP looks bullish. It’s above both the 10 day and 200 day moving averages, a “buy” signal for momentum traders. The MACD is positive and the RSI is at 62 so XRP still has room to run before it gets overbought. $2.45 is the key support. If that holds, XRP could go to $2.80 or even test $3. Below $2.20 and it could be a short term retracement.
Analysts have noted that momentum is building again in XRP after weeks of sideways consolidation. As long as support holds, the structure suggests an extended 5th wave could be underway.
Crypto chartist Dark Defender says XRP’s current pattern fits Elliott Wave Theory, a framework used to predict market cycles. In a May 10 post on X, the analyst said XRP completed Wave 4 at $2.07 and is now in Wave 5 which is the most powerful part of a bullish cycle. Dark Defender is looking for a medium term range of $5.85-$6.39 if macro and sentiment stays positive. These are speculative and need technical confirmation but the structure is getting attention.
Wave 5 is not just a continuation, it’s a breakout phase. XRP needs to hold above $2.40-$2.50 zone to confirm this scenario.
Real World Adoption and Legal Developments Support
Beyond the charts, XRP’s strength is also supported by adoption metrics and regulatory tailwinds. According to on-chain data from Santiment, the number of XRP holders has increased 11% since the beginning of 2025. Payment platforms like Travala have added XRP for travel bookings, which is driving real-world use of XRP outside of speculative trading.
Another boost comes from Missouri’s proposed House Bill 594 which will eliminate capital gains taxes on digital assets like XRP and Bitcoin. If passed, this could be an example for other US states and more crypto friendly legislation nationwide.
State-level crypto tax reform can reduce barriers for investors and businesses. While federal clarity is lacking, these local efforts can still have a measurable impact on market psychology.
XRP Flips Tether Briefly in Market Cap Rankings
With this surge in trading and interest, XRP briefly overtook Tether (USDT) to become the 3rd largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Although the rankings have since fluctuated, the moment showed XRP can regain ground among top tier digital assets.
Market watchers have noted that these shifts can accelerate fund flows and algorithmic rebalancing in favor of the outperforming asset. When a token flips another in market cap, it triggers attention from quant funds and passive strategies. It’s not just symbolic, it can influence real capital flows.
XRP’s performance also coincides with a broader uptick in altcoin momentum. Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade which introduced smart contract like behavior for externally owned accounts (via EIP-7702) has reignited activity across DeFi and Layer 1 networks. Analyst say this ecosystem revival is lifting correlated assets like XRP.
Although XRP is on a different architecture than Ethereum, it’s often seen as a bellwether for altcoin cycles. Investors are rotating into assets that previously lagged the market but now show good upside.
Potential Roadblocks: Resistance and Regulatory Headwinds
Despite the strong rally, XRP is not without its challenges. The $3 psychological level has been a heavy resistance, and it’s to be seen if bulls can generate enough volume to sustain a breakout.
There’s also the regulatory uncertainty in the US. Ongoing developments in federal crypto legislation especially around stablecoins and staking could impact XRP’s market standing. Until there’s federal digital asset legislation, XRP and other altcoins might continue to face headline risks.
Conclusion: Can XRP get to $3?
The current XRP price prediction is bullish driven by technical momentum, real world adoption and state level tax reform. Volume and open interest is growing and chart structure is favorable.
However, XRP must clear $2.80 and break $3 to get back into a higher range. Short term dips are likely as traders take profits but unless support levels are broken, the structure is good.
Whether this is the start of a multi month rally or just a short spike will depend on how the macro trends, regulation and crypto market dynamics play out in the next few weeks.
FAQs
What’s behind the XRP price surge?
XRP’s price is being driven by strong technicals, growing adoption, increasing volume and supportive legislation like Missouri’s proposed digital asset tax reform bill.
What’s the big deal about XRP reaching $2.61?
It’s XRP’s highest since early March 2025 and above key resistance zones, so it could be a sign of renewed bullish momentum to $3.
Can XRP really get to $3 soon?
If $2.45 holds and volume continues to build, XRP could retest $2.80 and potentially break $3. But if it fails to hold $2.20 it could correct.
What’s Elliott Wave Theory saying about XRP?
According to Dark Defender, XRP may be in the final Wave 5 of a bullish Elliott cycle and could go to $6.39, pending confirmation.
How is the Missouri crypto bill relevant to XRP?
House Bill 594 proposes to eliminate capital gains tax on crypto assets like XRP and Bitcoin. If passed it could bring in more retail and institutional investment into XRP.
Glossary
XRP – A digital currency developed by Ripple Labs for real-time cross-border payments.
Spot Volume – Total amount of an asset traded in the spot market in a given timeframe.
Open Interest – The Total value of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures and options.
MACD – A momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a token’s price.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – A technical indicator used to measure the magnitude of recent price ‘changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.
Elliott Wave Theory – A form of technical analysis that predicts market trends by identifying repeating wave patterns in price movements.
Pectra Upgrade – An Ethereum network upgrade that introduced smart contract capabilities to regular wallets via EIP-7702.
Sources
X Post – Dark Defender on Elliott Wave XRP
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not investment or legal advice. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.
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