Based on available reports, President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House 218-214 on July 3. Now, it’s on its way to the White House for signature. While the political world is debating budget cuts and tax reforms, crypto markets are bracing for aftershocks, especially for Bitcoin.
Despite bipartisan support from pro-crypto lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis, reports say the final bill didn’t include provisions to provide tax relief to miners, stakers and holders. According to multiple insiders, these amendments were dropped due to time constraints in the reconciliation process. But the bigger concern? A massive liquidity drain triggered by Treasury actions could come up once the bill becomes law.
Treasury’s $500 Billion TGA Refill Could Hit Bitcoin
With the bill lifting the debt ceiling, the US Treasury is now going to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA), an action that Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns could drain up to $500 billion in liquidity from financial markets.
“If the TGA refill is dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000. If it’s a nothingburger, Bitcoin will chop in the $100,000s without a decisive break above $112,000.”, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder
According to Hayes, the liquidity squeeze from this bond issuance will put short-term pressure on Bitcoin and reverse some of the recent gains.
Bitcoin Price at Risk of Retesting $90K?
Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,000 after recovering from the recent dips. But the upcoming TGA refill and macro caution have analysts bracing for a short-term retracement. Hayes says this liquidity event could push Bitcoin down to $90,000-$95,000, a zone many are now looking to buy into.
This view is shared by other market analysts tracking the bill’s fiscal impact. AINews reported that Wall Street traders expect volatile bond markets in July which could spill over into crypto as funds temporarily rotate out of high-risk assets.
But this scenario depends heavily on how the bond market reacts to Treasury auctions over the next few weeks.
Bullish If Dip Is Absorbed
Hayes is still long-term bullish. He believes that if markets absorb the Treasury issuance without dislocation, Bitcoin will stay in the low $100Ks before moving to new highs.
In fact, Hayes also points to another bullish factor: stablecoin-led liquidity via commercial banks, which he calls the “Stablecoin Liquidity Bazooka”.
“In the next few months, if the Fed stays neutral and the stablecoin flow continues, the next leg of the Bitcoin bull run is on. $112,000 is just the beginning.” – Arthur Hayes.
Crypto Tax Relief Left Behind Again
One of the biggest letdowns for crypto enthusiasts was the no tax reform for digital asset holders in the Big Beautiful Bill. Several amendments, sponsored by Senators like Cynthia Lummis, sought to clarify staking income taxation and capital gains exemptions for microtransactions. None made it in.
This means more regulatory friction and a missed opportunity to update the tax code for the digital age.The IRS’s stance on staking income is still unclear and advocates warn it will hinder blockchain innovation in the US.
Conclusion: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Bull?
The Trump Big Beautiful Bill dynamic is complicated. On one hand, the bill’s fiscal expansion and Treasury liquidity drain will probably suppress Bitcoin’s momentum. On the other hand, its macro impact combined with growing institutional demand and decentralized liquidity will reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term thesis.
Analysts are watching for near term weakness as the TGA rebuild kicks in. But as history shows, Bitcoin often bounces back stronger after macro driven pullbacks, especially when demand is strong.
Summary
The Big Beautiful Bill passed Congress on July 3 and the US Treasury will refill its cash reserves with $500 billion. Arthur Hayes says this will drain liquidity and push Bitcoin to $90K-$95K. Crypto tax amendments were removed from the bill but long term outlooks are still positive. Hayes thinks Bitcoin will recover and go past $112K once the liquidity event stabilizes.
FAQs
What is the Big Beautiful Bill?
It’s President Trump’s main budget bill, passed July 3, 2025, with tax cuts, safety net reductions and debt ceiling increase. No crypto tax reforms.
How does this bill affect Bitcoin?
It allows the US Treasury to refill its cash reserves and pull $500 billion from the markets which will push Bitcoin to a temporary $90K dip.
Did the bill help crypto tax reform?
No. Crypto holder amendments were removed in the final version. Advocates warn this means more regulatory uncertainty for staking and DeFi income.
Is the bull run over?
Not necessarily. Arthur Hayes expects a short term pullback but is bullish long term with targets above $112,000 once the liquidity event stabilizes.
Glossary
Trump Big Beautiful Bill – 2025 tax-and-spending bill with fiscal stimulus, spending increases and debt ceiling increase.
Treasury General Account (TGA) – US government’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve; refilling it pulls liquidity from the markets.
Liquidity Drain – When government actions absorb financial capital and limit money available for risk assets.
Crypto Tax Amendments – Proposed but excluded reforms to ease staking income and crypto transaction taxation.
Sources
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