Toncoin Faces Critical Test: Can It Survive Below $6.50?

We examine Toncoin (TON) in detail and explore why it is struggling to hold the important overhead support level of $6.50 as it registers declining network activity. But, coming off the back of a strong November rally, which saw it add 50% value, converting 6.50 from resistance to support, December opened with a 14% rise in the first week. But those gains have evaporated with the recent price action. The important thing now is whether Toncoin can resume its bullish move or face another phase of consolidation.

Price Levels to Observe

Currently, Toncoin trades at $6.58, down 3.54% from the previous 24 hours. The breakdown through the $6.50 level was a significant support that could potentially lead to a rebound.

Technical indicators show a mixed view:

The Alligator indicator indicates consolidation with moving averages that are reconciled around the current price.

The stochastic RSI is currently 59.02, which suggests a potential pullback.

The 14-day RSI is currently at 59.38, showing a decline in bullish momentum.

In order for Toncoin to move once again in an upward direction, it needs to cross $7.20 and target $7.50, bringing its all-time high of $8.24 back into the frame. Yet, a fall below $6.50 will bring the price down toward $6.28 and test excellent support at $5.45.

A Potential Red Flag

Over the past few weeks, Toncoin has seen a significant drop in network activity. According to the data, new addresses fell by 16.33% and active addresses fell by 19.69%. Moreover, the count of zero-balance addresses has decreased by 41.90%, indicating its increasing inactivity within the sphere of blockchain.

This concurs with the recent price retracement and indicates a reduced appetite from users. A strong correlation between price movements and active network participation is often observed by analysts, so the decline in participation could be an indication of cautious anticipation from investors regarding Toncoin.

Rebuilding network growth is likely to be an important piece of the puzzle in Toncoin’s recovery. More users being engaged and more activity could help strengthen the ecosystem and provide the bullish force to lift prices up.

Neutral, But With a Bearish Bias

For the last week, Bitcoin’s sentiment has been a bit bearish. The data shows almost a tie between bullish and bearish positions, a sign of a market in consolidation, waiting for a breakout. Since historical trends indicate that market sentiment for Bitcoin has a cyclical nature, 2020 saw strong bullish dominance for the cryptocurrency, while 2022 saw bearish trends.

Whether Bitcoin heads for a breakout or a breakdown will depend on the wider market forces prevailing in the coming weeks.

A Bullish Signal Despite The Uncertainty

Past difficulties bring some cautious hope. Toncoin whale transactions have increased by 110%, indicating increasing trust among large network participants. This uptick in activity from large players indicates potential accumulation and confidence in the long-term prospects for Toncoin. If this pattern holds, it could fill liquidity shortfalls, boost demand, and offer price support. These developments could see Bitcoin break through key resistance levels and push the asset back into an upward trajectory, strengthening its recovery and growth prospects in the market.

2025 and Beyond

As 2025 nears, Bitcoin would need to overcome several hurdles on its path to an all-time high, including maintaining key support levels, reigniting network activity, and sustaining bullish market sentiment.

As the $6.50 support level proves crucial, the direction of Toncoin will depend on the relationship between technical indicators, network participation, and wider market trends. Market participants and investors would do well to watch for these dynamics over the coming weeks. Toncoin’s revival will, in the end, depend on user’s re-engagement and price action reflecting growing activities in the protocol’s ecosystem.