The global economic outlook for 2024 suggests a landscape of moderate growth and moderating inflation, painting a picture of cautious optimism in the aftermath of the pandemic. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth is anticipated to stand at 3.1% in 2024, showing a slight uptick compared to previous forecasts, largely due to unexpected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, along with fiscal support in China. This projection, however, remains below the pre-pandemic historical average growth rate. A noteworthy aspect of the forecast is the significant decline in inflation, expected to drop to 5.8% in 2024 and further to 4.4% in 2025, suggesting easing price pressures globally. This scenario opens the possibility for a “soft landing,” reducing the likelihood of a severe economic downturn.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) echoes a similar sentiment, pointing out the IMF’s forecast of a slight decline in global growth to 2.9% in 2024, with a notable contribution from emerging markets, while growth in advanced economies remains subdued. This period is characterized by economic uncertainty impacting global efforts towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The World Bank provides a regional perspective, forecasting growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to slightly increase, with the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) region expected to reach stronger growth rates of 3.5% in both 2024 and 2025, primarily due to benefits for oil-exporting economies. South Asia is projected to maintain robust growth, especially in India, driven by strong investment and services. Sub-Saharan Africa is anticipated to see a growth rebound as conditions that have temporarily weighed on growth begin to ease. Nonetheless, the World Bank also cautions about several risks, including higher energy prices due to conflicts, tighter global financial conditions, and climate change-related events.
In summary, the global economic forecast for 2024 suggests a period of steady recovery and easing inflation, albeit with underlying risks and uncertainties, especially regarding geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges. The detailed outlooks offer valuable insights into how different regions might navigate the post-pandemic economic landscape, underlining the interconnected nature of global economic dynamics.
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