While the crypto market has responded positively to the U.S. government’s 90-day tariff pause, analysts warn that Bitcoin’s latest rally may lack substance. According to leading analytics firm Swissblock, current signals indicate that Bitcoin remains in a high-risk zone, with insufficient technical confirmation for a sustained uptrend.
Dey There reports that while optimism has returned to the market, caution is still warranted as key price and volume indicators continue to flash warnings.
Risk Indicators Still Elevated, Despite Short-Term Bounce
Swissblock’s proprietary Bitcoin Risk Signal, which factors in price movements, on-chain metrics, and volume data, suggests that risk levels are “under control” — but not yet low enough to confirm a new market bottom.
While recent upward price action may seem encouraging, the firm emphasizes that without volume-backed buying and structural support, Bitcoin’s rise may be technically unsupported. In other words, the price may be moving upward, but the foundation for that movement remains weak.
Short-term rallies should not be mistaken for a broader reversal in trend. Traders are urged to remain vigilant, as false breakouts could lead to renewed selling pressure.
$80,000 Level Remains a Decisive Battleground
Analysts at Swissblock argue that Bitcoin must firmly establish support at the $80,000 level to validate any bullish momentum. So far, this key area is being tested, but no clear breakout has been confirmed.
“The market must show strength and volume above $80,000,” Swissblock noted, underlining the importance of both technical and psychological support at this level. Though Bitcoin has gained 4.7% over the past 24 hours, experts caution that such spikes need confirmation through sustainable trading activity.
If the $80K mark fails to hold, analysts warn of a possible downside correction, reinforcing the need to monitor both support structures and volume profiles.
Tariff Pause Impact Remains Muted
Although the U.S. tariff pause decision briefly calmed markets, it hasn’t sparked a lasting rally. Swissblock maintains that macro developments like this have limited long-term effect on market structure unless they coincide with strong technical setups.
Bitcoin still appears to be trending downward, with no clear evidence that the current correction phase has ended. Every bounce that lacks technical validation, according to the firm, has the potential to trigger fresh selling.
Bottom Line: Patience Over Premature Optimism
For now, market participants are watching closely for signs of structural improvement. According to Dey There, the next decisive move will depend on whether Bitcoin can solidify support and regain investor confidence — backed by volume.
Until then, volatility and uncertainty remain the dominant themes, even in the face of short-term gains.
Source:
Swissblock – Market Research & Risk Analysis
Official source of Swissblock’s Bitcoin Risk Signal and macro-technical insights.CoinMarketCap – Bitcoin (BTC) Overview
Live BTC price, historical charts, trading volume, and market dominance metrics.TradingView – Bitcoin Technical Charts
Advanced charting tools and real-time technical analysis of Bitcoin price movements.
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