Based on latest news reports, JPMorgan analysts now predict Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2025, they call it a “supercycle shift” driven by institutional adoption, state backed crypto reserves and a maturing ETF market.
The bank’s research team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted a reversal in traditional market trends.
“Between mid February and mid April, gold was rising at the expense of Bitcoin. Over the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite” they wrote in a recent note reviewed by The Block.
As investors rebalance their portfolios with rising equities and softening interest rate cut expectations, gold has reportedly lost nearly 8% since April 22. Meanwhile Bitcoin has broken past $100,000, with strong inflows into US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This is more than a short term swing according to JPMorgan. They expect Bitcoin’s upside to continue into 2H 2025 driven by crypto native factors that gold can’t replicate.
Institutional Flows Redefine the Narrative
One of the clearest signs of this shift is in how ETFs are behaving. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF has seen consistent outflows in recent weeks while spot BTC ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity and Ark Invest have seen billions in net inflows.
Data from Bloomberg shows BTC ETF inflows have hit $12.3 billion year to date, while gold ETFs have seen over $5 billion in outflows. JPMorgan attributes this divergence to a rebalancing of investor portfolios, especially among institutions looking for higher yield or growth oriented alternatives.
BTC futures positioning supports the trend. As gold futures see declining open interest, Bitcoin futures on CME have spiked with asset managers increasing their exposure. The CME’s May CoT report showed institutional longs in Bitcoin at their highest level in over a year.
US States Are Buying Bitcoin
Beyond corporations, governments especially at the state level are looking at Bitcoin as part of their reserves. New Hampshire made headlines this quarter by passing a law allowing the state to allocate up to 5% of its reserves to either Bitcoin or gold.
Arizona is taking a different approach. Instead of using taxpayer funds, the state is building a digital asset reserve from staking rewards and airdrops. This way they can build up their crypto reserves without legislative budget allocations or public backlash.
JPMorgan’s analysts say if this trend spreads to other US states or even countries it will be a long term tailwind for Bitcoin.
“As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for Bitcoin.” their report said.
Strategic M&A and Licensing Deals Build Institutional Infrastructure
The rise in institutional interest is also tied to the maturing infrastructure underpinning the crypto economy. Over the past month alone major players have accelerated consolidation and regulatory progress.
Coinbase just announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange. Kraken followed with a $1.5 billion deal to acquire NinjaTrader, expanding its reach in retail derivatives.
Gemini has secured a full EU license for derivatives trading, the first US exchange to do so. In Canada, Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi for $179 million is a push into regulated DeFi and crypto brokerage services.
Ripple’s $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, a credit network connected to traditional markets, is the growing crossover between legacy finance and crypto native services.
Together these moves are creating a more credible and scalable ecosystem for institutional capital to participate, one of the necessary prerequisites for long term Bitcoin price appreciation.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Global Capital Allocation
JPMorgan’s prediction of Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2025 is more than just short-term trading behavior. It’s a sign of a deeper realignment of how capital flows, what assets are safe and how institutional players think about long-term store-of-value strategies.
With corporations, governments and asset managers all pointing in the same direction, and with ETF inflows at record pace, the next few quarters may be Bitcoin’s strongest fundamental run yet.
Will it dethrone gold as the default inflation hedge? Market watchers and analysts will be on the lookout.
FAQs
Why does JPMorgan think Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2025?
JPMorgan cites strong ETF inflows, corporate adoption and structural market shifts that are drawing institutional capital to Bitcoin and away from gold.
Are governments really buying Bitcoin?
States like New Hampshire and Arizona have plans to include Bitcoin in state reserves, either directly or through innovative funding models.
How do ETFs impact Bitcoin’s price?
ETFs give institutional and retail investors exposure to Bitcoin without custody risk. Inflows into ETFs reduce available market supply which can drive price up.
Is gold losing relevance as a safe-haven asset?
Gold still plays a role but digital alternatives like Bitcoin are gaining popularity especially among younger and tech-savvy investors looking for higher returns.
What role do corporate treasuries play in Bitcoin adoption?
Corporations like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are using Bitcoin as a hedge and strategic reserve which signals trust in its long-term value and encourages other companies to follow.
Glossary
ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): A financial product that tracks the price of an asset and trades on stock exchanges allowing easier access for investors.
Spot Bitcoin ETF: An ETF that holds actual Bitcoin not futures contracts giving investors direct exposure to the asset.Treasury Reserve Asset: An asset held by a company or government to store value, used in times of economic stress.
Derivatives: Financial products whose value is based on an underlying asset, like Bitcoin options or futures.
Institutional Adoption: When big players like banks, asset managers or governments start using or investing in a financial asset.
Sources
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are risky, do your own research before investing.
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