Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully held above $94,500 following the expiration of $7.2 billion in options contracts. Despite 76,709 contracts expiring on Friday, the market remained calm, climbing over 2% after briefly dipping to $92,000 earlier in the week. The stability comes as a strong signal that investors are increasingly betting on long-term upside.
Call Options Dominate: Market Prepares for Higher Levels
Options data reveals a consistent bullish bias among investors. Roughly 57% of the recently expired contracts were call options, concentrated around the $95,000 and $100,000 strike levels—indicating strong market expectations for upward price action.
According to Aran Hawker, CEO of CoinPanel, this call-heavy distribution reflects “long-term optimism that isn’t easily shaken.” The put-to-call ratio stood at 0.73, underscoring a relatively low appetite for protective downside bets.
The “max pain” point—the price level at which option holders suffer the most losses—was calculated at $86,000. This suggests the market is not overly hedged for a deep correction, reinforcing a risk-on sentiment.
Institutional Calm, On-Chain Activity Heating Up
Two fundamental developments are bolstering Bitcoin’s momentum:
Exchange Outflows Surge: According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC outflows from centralized exchanges (CEXs) have hit a two-year high. Investors are moving their holdings into cold wallets—a signal that long-term accumulation may be underway.
Whale Accumulation Accelerates: Glassnode’s “Accumulation Trend Score” has returned to levels last seen in late December 2024. This suggests large wallet holders—commonly known as whales—have been actively buying during the recent rally.
The team at Bitfinex highlighted a shift in resistance. “With the $90,000 barrier cleared, upside friction has diminished. We now see notable concentration of call options around $95K and $100K.”
Looking Ahead: May and June Expiries In Focus
Investor attention is now shifting to the May 30 and June 27 options expiries. Deribit data already shows strong open interest around these dates. Hawker notes this signals the market’s readiness to trend higher, particularly if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
Dey There emphasizes that the reduced implied volatility, paired with aggressive accumulation patterns, presents a uniquely stable yet optimistic backdrop for Bitcoin’s next move. A retest of $95,000 followed by a breakout toward six figures may no longer be a speculative fantasy—but a structurally supported possibility.
Sources:
Deribit Options Analytics: deribit.com
Glassnode Metrics and Trend Score: glassnode.com
CryptoQuant Exchange Flow Reports: cryptoquant.com
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