Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as Market Awaits Key U.S. Inflation Report

Bitcoin rally gained fresh strength this week, sending BTC  above $110,000 for the first time since May. A “peaceful rally” that caught short sellers off guard and cleaned out excess leverage has BTC just 2% from its all-time high. Yet, despite the bullish structure and investor optimism, on-chain data and macro events loom, suggesting this calm may not last.

Bitcoin Rises in Measured Climb, Near All-Time High

Bitcoin’s 3.7% gain in the last 24 hours pushed prices to $110,000 on Monday, its best day in June so far. Ethereum rose 3.8% to $2,620, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE and SUI tokens led the altcoin gains with 7% and 4.5%, respectively. However, as at the tie of this writing, BTC is currently trading at $109,589.06 and ETH is at $2,676.11

Unlike the violent rallies of past cycles, this is a smooth up move and responsive buying.

“A ‘peaceful rally’ is a perfect way to describe this price action,” said Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics. “Just a consistent development of higher highs and higher lows. Any signs of weakness? Buyers step in and defend the trend.”

The broader stock market was flat but crypto related stocks are catching up to the weekend’s BTC momentum. The calm of the rally is in contrast to the traditional markets which are trading cautious ahead of this week’s data events.

Short Squeeze Cleans Out Derivatives

As Bitcoin broke above key resistance, leveraged traders who were betting on a drop got caught. CoinGlass data showed over $110 million in BTC shorts got liquidated in under an hour on Monday, part of a $330 million clean out across all crypto assets. That was the largest short squeeze in over a month.

According to Bitfinex analysts, this leveraged clean-out may have cleared the way for a more sustainable move up. The exchange noted that the crypto market is now on steadier footing for a next move higher, pointing out that over $1.9 billion in crypto derivatives got cleaned out during last week’s 10% BTC drop to nearly $100,000.

However, that momentum is now at a crossroads: long term holders are starting to sell into strength. On-chain analytics show increased selling that could drag the Bitcoin rally if new demand doesn’t absorb the outflows.

Market at Crossroads: Technical Momentum vs. Fundamental Uncertainty

Despite the bullish price action, Bitfinex analysts say BTC is now at a crossroads, balanced between structural support and waning bullish momentum, waiting for its next macro cue. This push-pull is getting more apparent as the rally slows down and tests investor’s patience. The current Bitcoin rally is near its previous high and testing investor’s conviction.

Technical traders note that while BTC is well supported above $108K, more upside may require a clear breakout above the $112K–$114K zone, which has been a key resistance zone. Any failure to do so could mean the price could go no further up.

Meanwhile, liquidity in centralized exchanges has dried up and Bitcoin’s open interest in futures markets is still high so if macro factors surprise the market, another volatility spike could be coming.

Macro Drivers: CPI Report and U.S.-China Trade Talks

The market’s next directional move is likely to come from these factors. This week, reports say the U.S. and Chinese trade reps are meeting and the outcome could impact global risk. Jake O, OTC trader at Wintermute, pointed out that the market is super sensitive to headlines after last week’s trade optimism and light economic calendar.

All eyes are on the June 12 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which will give clues on inflation trends and the Fed’s next move. A higher than expected CPI will revive hawkish rate expectations and kill risk appetite including Bitcoin.

China’s May CPI came in flat, year over year which adds another wrinkle. China’s deflationary pressure is growing and while that might invite policy easing in Asia, global investors are cautious with the world’s 2nd largest economy still sluggish.

For now, Bitcoin rally is still intact. But without clear macro tailwinds and with new headwinds, the market is finely balanced between further breakout and correction.

Analysts See $117K–$120K If Macro Aligns

Technical analysts like Doctor Profit are bullish citing Bitcoin’s clean structure from the $100K area and saying a break above $112K could trigger a move to $117K–$120K. But that’s only if this week’s data confirms macro factors are still supportive of risk on.

BTC dominance is also at 55% which means capital is still flowing into Bitcoin. Unless macro data disappoints or long term holders start to sell, this Bitcoin rally might be setting up for a fresh breakout. If either happens, BTC will retrace back to $104K–$106K before establishing a new trend.

Conclusion: Calm Before the Storm?

This current Bitcoin rally above $110K is a big psychological and technical level especially after last week’s leveraged shakeout. With bullish structure in place and short sellers sidelined, BTC might have a clear path if macro factors cooperate.

As traders wait for Wednesday’s CPI and U.S.-China headlines, caution may creep back into the market. For now, Bitcoin is holding but will this calm turn into a breakout or a correction?

FAQs

What’s a “peaceful rally” in crypto?

A steady price increase with higher highs and lower lows with no big volatility, usually means strong demand.

Why were so many Bitcoin shorts liquidated?

As BTC went up, traders who were betting on the price to go down had to close their positions and $110 million was liquidated in an hour.

Why is Bitcoin at a crossroads?

It’s showing technical strength but there’s growing sell pressure from long term holders and uncertainty around upcoming macro data.

What macro events are crypto traders watching this week?

US–China trade talks and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on June 12.

Can Bitcoin hit a new all-time high soon?

Analysts see a breakout to $117K–$120K if macro data is good and current momentum continues.

Glossary

Bitcoin Rally: A sustained increase in Bitcoin’s price over time, often caused by demand, technicals or macro events.

Short Liquidation: When asset prices go up and shorts are forced to close.

Open Interest: The total number of outstanding derivative contracts that haven’t been settled.

CPI (Consumer Price Index): A key inflation indicator that affects monetary policy and investor sentiment.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum indicator that measures overbought or oversold conditions in asset prices.

Deflationary Pressure: When prices go down due to lack of demand, often means slower economic growth.

Sources

CoinDesk

CoinGlass

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and involve high risk. Always do your own research or consult a financial advisor.