The Bitcoin quantum threat has become the subject of heated discussions in the crypto space with investors and developers arguing over whether future quantum computers could one day break the cryptography keeping Bitcoin secure.
- Saylor on Bitcoin Quantum Risks: We Are Not in Immediate Danger
- What You Need to Know About Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat: A Tech Perspective
- Voices of the Industry: The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
- The Market Response and Buried Theories About Bitcoin’s Price
- Conclusion
- Glossary
- Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Quantum Risk
The conversation was started again after MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, discussed the issue in an appearance on the Natalie Brunell Coin Stories podcast, saying any credible quantum threat is still “more than a decade away” and would be detectable well before it manifests.
Saylor on Bitcoin Quantum Risks: We Are Not in Immediate Danger
Speaking with host Natalie Brunell, Michael Saylor played down the worries that quantum computing is a near-term threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography. He is of the opinion that credible quantum breakthroughs capable of threatening Bitcoin are probably at least a decade away.
He emphasized that these kinds of advancements would not drop suddenly as a surprise, but would happen gradually, allowing systems from the internet itself and global banking networks to adapt.
Saylor’s argument rests on the idea that post-quantum cryptography would become a coordinated industrial effort if quantum machines within range of breaking Bitcoin’s security ever became a reality.
Bitcoin’s software and node infrastructure are designed to evolve over time, he said, and upgrades can happen through consensus when and if doing so is necessary. “You’ll see it coming. We’ll all see it coming,” Saylor said, emphasizing that future adaptability is a strength.
“I think the crypto community will be the first to perceive the threat, and to react to the threat, and they’ll be leading the way.”
He also described the entire crypto community as one of the “most sophisticated cybersecurity communities,” citing that measures already in place to protect digital assets such as multi-factor authentication and hardware key protections far outweigh what is commonly found in older financial systems.
What You Need to Know About Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat: A Tech Perspective
This fear surrounding Bitcoin quantum risks is based on the hypothetical potential of powerful quantum computers to crack the elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA) that forms Bitcoin’s security model. But the general agreement among cryptographers and market analysts is that fully capable quantum devices are years into the future; most estimates place the breakthrough after 2035 or beyond.
As of early 2026, current quantum hardware cannot meet the necessary scale. Additionally, the most powerful known commercial quantum computers are still too limited in their stable qubit count and error-correcting capacity to pose an immediate risk. Many experts contend that the logical qubit counts needed to threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations would have to outweigh past advancements by a big margin.
The layout of the address also has an effect. For example, Bitcoin addresses generated using newer standards such as Taproot cannot divulge a public key on-chain until that transaction is subsequently spent, reducing the window of opportunity for an advanced potential quantum attack.
Only older address formats or reused addresses would theoretically be at any risk, and then only for the duration of relatively brief transaction windows.
Voices of the Industry: The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
Although Saylor stresses that the Bitcoin quantum risk is far away, other members of the blockchain ecosystem have adopted a more cautious perspective. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been vocal about the fact that quantum computing is a real long term.
Speaking at a late-2025 event in Buenos Aires, he referenced forecasting data that indicates there was still a non-negligible probability that quantum computers could be able to affect elliptic curve cryptography before 2030, and that the industry should prepare for quantum-safe cryptography within the next few years.
With a 2026 security roadmap set, the Ethereum Foundation has but one goal in mind: ensuring post-quantum preparedness, having formed a dedicated team specifically to focus on post-quantum cryptographic readiness.
On the Bitcoin side, developments such as BIP 360 have drawn interest as early steps for quantum-resistant address formats and authentication mechanisms are being taken. The development would make changes to Bitcoin’s output types, reducing susceptibility to quantum threats by removing certain vulnerabilities that exist with earlier formats.
The Market Response and Buried Theories About Bitcoin’s Price
Debates over the Bitcoin quantum risk have also crossed paths with talks about the market’s recent performance. Various analysts including venture figures such as Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures say that quantum risk might somehow be affecting Bitcoin sentiment even if the actual threat from the technology is still a distant concern.
On-chain data firm Glassnode have since made it clear that quantum risk is not the primary driver behind recent price moves, and have cited other macroeconomic conditions and risk-off sentiment in markets instead.
As a result, irrespective of price movements, quantum resilience is a technical talk and would not be an immediate investor concern because there is a consensus within the cryptography experts that more time horizon will pass before quantum computing hit scale.
Conclusion
Leading figures like Michael Saylor have rejected any near-term threat, arguing that a credible Bitcoin quantum risk is most likely at least a decade away and will unfold with much public warning. Other blockchain experts and researchers take a more cautionary approach, seeing the future potential of the technology while calling for preparation through evolutionary cryptography and gradual protocol advances.
What is clear across the industry, however, is that existing quantum capabilities are still a long way from threatening Bitcoin’s extensive security infrastructure and both community leaders and core developers have growing awareness of these long-range threats.
Glossary
Bitcoin quantum threat: A hypothetical future risk that quantum computers will be able to crack Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. Experts estimate at least a decade away.
Post-quantum cryptography: Cryptographic algorithms that are focused on being secure against quantum computers. Many tech sectors are moving the ball forward.
BIP 360: a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal; designed to create new types of addresses that will be resistant to quantum attacks in the future.
Taproot: Bitcoin protocol upgrade (December 2021); that altered transaction output formats and compressed some quantum attack time periods.
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Quantum Risk
Are Quantum Computers a Threat to Bitcoin Right Now?
No it is not; because experts and industry leaders such as Michael Saylor agree that the Bitcoin quantum threat is far more than a decade away.
How can Bitcoin protect itself from quantum attacks?
Bitcoin’s community may implement post-quantum cryptography and upgrade network protocols by coordinated consensus before any serious threat appears.
What is BIP 360?
BIP 360, or Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360, protects against future quantum computing threats with the introduction of new address formats.
Could quantum computing explain the price decline of Bitcoin?
No. Analysts tend to say that quantum concerns aren’t an important factor moving price; macro factors and risk sentiment are bigger drivers.
At what point could quantum computers pose a threat to Bitcoin?
Consensus estimates differ, but the majority of cryptographers predict practical quantum threats to Bitcoin’s cryptography are 10-20 years away or further out.
References
Cointelegraph
MEXC
CoinMarketCap
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