Bitcoin (BTC) has been under pressure and investors are worried it might be entering a long term bearish phase. Some are expecting a recovery, others a further drop. One of the most notable predictions is from Arthur Hayes, Co-founder of BitMEX, who says Bitcoin could go to $70,000 to $75,000 if certain macro conditions happen. This follows a wild week in the market, with a 12.6% drop over 3 days, the biggest since the 2022 FTX collapse. The factors affecting Bitcoin go beyond technicals, with US political and economic events playing a big role.
Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Points
Arthur Hayes, a well known voice in the crypto space, shared a Bitcoin price chart from BitMEX recently outlining a scenario where Bitcoin’s price could drop big. His analysis highlights:
| Factor | Impact on Bitcoin Price |
|---|---|
| Market Cooling Phase | Bitcoin consolidates after rapid price increases. |
| Pre-Election Liquidity | BTC retracing to prior liquidity levels before the 2024 elections. |
| Trump’s Budget Decision | Potential economic uncertainty affecting investor confidence. |
| Debt Ceiling Debate | Lower spending could trigger further Bitcoin sell-offs. |
The “Cooling Phase” Theory
Hayes calls the current market a “cooling phase”, where prices consolidate after a big rally. This is typical in crypto cycles where traders reassess market conditions and retrace before a new run.
His chart shows a critical demand zone between $76,000 and $65,000 where big buying pressure is expected. But if macro conditions remain bad, Bitcoin could go lower to $70,000.
1. Trump’s Budget and Debt Ceiling Decisions
A big concern is Trump’s ability to pass a budget that includes more spending and raises the US debt ceiling. Hayes says if he can’t he will:
– Reduced liquidity in markets
– Lower risk appetite among investors
– More Bitcoin price capitulation
If Trump can’t get those fiscal policies through investors will liquidate riskier assets and Bitcoin’s price will go down.
2. Political Influence and Market Sentiment
Another trigger for a Bitcoin price crash is Trump’s influence over the Republican Party. Hayes says if his control weakens market uncertainty will increase and there will be panic selling and more volatility.
Historically uncertainty in leadership has caused big market moves, especially in assets like Bitcoin which are sensitive to macro sentiment.
3. Debt Ceiling Reduction and Market Liquidity
A reduction in the US debt ceiling will lead to lower government spending and overall market liquidity. Bitcoin as an inflation hedge benefits from expansionary fiscal policies. But if liquidity dries up the demand for BTC will shrink and the price will go down.
Bitcoin’s Crash Compared to Previous Crashes
Bitcoin’s 12.6% drop over the last 3 days is the biggest since the 2022 FTX crash, when an exchange collapse caused widespread panic.
| Event | Timeframe | BTC Price Drop | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTX Collapse | Nov 2022 | -22% | Multi-billion losses, major liquidations |
| China’s Crypto Ban | Sep 2021 | -15% | Bitcoin fell under $40,000 |
| Bitcoin ETF Delay | Jul 2023 | -12% | Temporary correction, recovered later |
| Current Decline | Feb 2025 | -12.6% | Largest drop since FTX collapse |
The current sell-off is due to Trump’s unclear policies, unlike previous crashes which were caused by regulatory crackdowns or exchange failures.
Experts’ Predictions: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Crypto analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s next move. Some think the market is undergoing a correction before it goes up again, others warn of further downside.
Bullish Perspective
– Michael van de Poppe, Crypto Analyst:
“Bitcoin is correcting before the next rally. If macro is stable, we’ll see $90,000 in weeks.”
– CryptoQuant Report:
“Long term holders are still accumulating Bitcoin, so they believe in the future price.”
Bearish Perspective
– Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Co-founder:
“Bitcoin’s next move depends on Trump’s delivery. If uncertain, we’ll see $70,000.”
– MetaEra Report:
“3 day drop is biggest since FTX crash, so market is anxious and will sell more.”
Conclusion: $70,000 Bitcoin?
The possibility of a Bitcoin to $70,000 is growing as macro uncertainty takes center stage. Arthur Hayes’ bearish view is based on Trump’s policies and reduced liquidity in the financial markets.
Some analysts are still optimistic, citing strong fundamentals, but traders should watch U.S. politics and global liquidity. If Trump doesn’t deliver on his budget, Bitcoin will sell more.
No matter the short term volatility, Bitcoin’s path will be determined by macro stability and investor sentiment in the next few months.
Stay updated with Deythere as we’re available around the clock, providing you with updated information about the state of the crypto world.
FAQs
1. Why is Bitcoin going down?
Bitcoin is correcting due to macro uncertainty, primarily Trump’s budget and debt ceiling.
2. Can Bitcoin really go to $70,000?
According to Arthur Hayes, it can go to $70,000–$75,000 if Trump doesn’t increase spending and the debt ceiling.
3. What is a “cooling phase” in crypto?
Cooling phase means a cryptocurrency consolidates after a big rally, for the market to settle before the next move.
4. How does the debt ceiling affect Bitcoin?
A lower debt ceiling will reduce liquidity in the market, making risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive, and prices will go down.
5. What to watch in the next few weeks?
Watch Trump’s fiscal policy, market liquidity, and overall investor sentiment towards risk assets.
Glossary
Capitulation: A scenario where Investors sell everything and prices go down.
Debt Ceiling: The amount of money the US government can borrow, which affects liquidity.
Liquidity: Cash and assets in the market, which affects Bitcoin’s price.
Cooling Phase: A consolidation period after a big rally.
On-Chain Data: Blockchain data to track investor behavior and trends.
References
Legal Disclaimer:
This article is for information purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are high risk and readers should do their own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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