According to the latest reports, Bitcoin’s weekend rally stalled on Monday as chart momentum gave way to cautious positioning by traders. The profit-taking ahead of this week’s US CPI print showed a defensive move, with options data showing increased Put demand; a clear sign traders are preparing for downside.
At the heart of this defensive strategy is Tuesday’s CPI release. Traders are reportedly closing longs as open interest drops and volume falls, a typical sign of de-risking before a major big announcement.
Defensive Positioning On-Chain
According to data from Derive and reported by Decrypt, Bitcoin options at $95,000 and $100,000 made up 10% of total options volume last week and nearly 40% of open interest for the August expiry.
Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive, said:
“Puts on these strikes for this expiry make up almost 40% of all open interest for the end of August tenor.”
This positioning hints at a clear hedge against a big pullback if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expected.
Market Reaction Tied to Mend or Stall
Markets view inflation data through the lens of policy and liquidity. A softer-than-expected US CPI print could mean a more dovish Fed, lower borrowing costs and opening up more upside for crypto. On the other hand, a hotter print could stall Bitcoin’s rally by pushing back rate cut expectations.
As Decrypt reports, sophisticated traders understand that the story is in how the US CPI data changes Fed policy expectations, not the number itself.
CoinDesk agrees with this view with a reflection from QCP:
“With prices at critical resistance, some profit-taking is likely before CPI… the market can absorb recent ‘OG whale’ sell-offs without losing momentum so we remain structurally bullish.”
Broader Sentiment and Macros
This defensive move is happening amid ongoing market calm and macro shift. According to Reuters, the dollar is steady, and traders see a high but not guaranteed chance of a Fed rate cut in September all ahead of an uncertain inflation print.
Meanwhile other sources note that options demand is up for both calls and puts as Bitcoin holds above $122,000 and becomes the focus of attention ahead of data.
How the US CPI Print Could Impact BTC
The upcoming US CPI data is an inflection point. A reading showing a hot inflation could diminish the confidence in Fed easing and trigger a flight mode. That is why traders are hedging now, not just because they’re scared but to protect their positions while the data is in transit.
The amount of hedging options, combined with technical resistance zones and open interest trends, suggests Bitcoin is at a critical point. Futures-based positioning gives a real-time read on sentiment and right now it is mixed.
Conclusion
Based on the latest research, ahead of the US CPI Print, the market is currently doing what is called Bitcoin CPI hedging. With big position closures and a clear put tilt, traders are clearly preparing for a probable volatility.
Market moves right now hinge on Fed expectations as cooler inflation will help boost crypto, while hotter numbers may stop the rally. Macro factors such as dollar strength, rate cut odds, geopolitical events; all add texture to Bitcoin’s path.
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Summary
Bitcoin’s rally stalled as traders went defensive ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI print. Data shows $95K–$100K puts make up 10% of weekly volume and 40% of August open interest, indicating that traders are expecting downside.
FAQs
Why are traders buying Bitcoin puts ahead of the US CPI Print?
They’re hedging against possible downside if inflation is hotter than expected potentially delaying the Fed’s easing and creating volatility.
How much of the options activity is downside protection?
Last week’s $95K–$100K puts were 10% of options volume and 40% of August open interest, meaning that there’s a lot of protective positioning.
Can Bitcoin rally if US CPI Print has a hot reading?
If the Fed is dovish or markets ignore inflation surprises, momentum could hold but investor confidence may be tested.
What macro factors will impact BTC post-CPI?
Fed guidance, dollar strength, rate cut timing and geopolitical risk events (e.g. tariffs, trade talks) will all impact the sentiment.
Glossary
Put Option — A contract that gives you the right to sell an asset at a set price before expiry, used to hedge or speculate on price drops.
Open Interest — The total number of outstanding derivative contracts, shows market participation.
Options Volume — The number of contracts traded over a period, shows activity and demand.
Cumulative Volume Delta — A measure of net buying vs selling pressure over time, used to gauge profit taking.
Sources
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