Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high and is above $120,000 for the first time. That is a remarkable 28% increase for the year so far, driven by geopolitical tension and technicals. As the US is about to release its next inflation print, analysts are watching closely, thinking it could either fuel or kill the rally.
With institutional inflows growing, ETF demand rising and trade-driven safe-haven interest pushing up, Ledn’s CEO is predicting Bitcoin could hit $136,000 by year-end if everything holds.
Breaking $120K: Safe-Haven or Momentum?
The rally started when Bitcoin went above $120,000 after Trump announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports. In previous times, trade friction drove risk-off into crypto assets like Bitcoin, seen as digital gold and a portfolio diversifier. This catalyst came just as BTC was clearing a brief consolidation and resetting overbought signals that had been indicating fatigue.
By midday in Hong Kong; CoinDesk reported Bitcoin was trading above $121,000.
Inflation Insights: Will CPI Kill the Rally?
As of now, markets are waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week. FactSet analytics is estimating 0.25% for June’s CPI (2.6% annual) and 0.3% for core CPI (3% annual). For Bitcoin, weakness in inflation could lead to more Fed rate cut expectations and more upside.
An unexpected hot print could slow down the rally as risk assets sell off. Traders and experts are watching short-term interest rate futures for changes in real-time inflation expectations, an important indicator for Bitcoin’s short-term path.
Ledn CEO Predicts Bitcoin Price to $136,000
One of the bullish voices is Ledn CEO John Glover who sees this as an Elliott-wave confirmation. According to Glover:
“The dip to $96K in late June was the wave (ii) pullback … while this doesn’t change the target of circa $136K … but it does likely reduce the time it will take to complete.”
His target moved from Q1 2026 to year-end, showing how technicals can accelerate the narrative. Institutional adoption and strong ETF inflows add to this forecast.
Macro Winds: ETFs, Regulation, Liquidity
Experts believe Bitcoin’s institutionalization remains solid. According to multiple ETF trackers, inflows are still coming in with billions flowing into the top products weekly. US regulation is also supportive issuing no hostile legislation as of now.
On the liquidity side, central bank balance sheets are still high and equity markets are at all-time highs so risk appetite is still strong even with inflation concerns. A weaker US dollar backdrop could also boost crypto-denominated assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the upside; there are several variables that could kill the move. A hotter CPI could delay rate cuts and kill risk appetite. Trade tensions from new tariffs or supply chain shocks; could re-ignite volatility.
On-chain; a sudden influx of exchange inflows or whale selling could send Bitcoin back to $100,000 levels. Also; a geopolitical shock greater than current trade tensions could send Bitcoin into chaos.
Conclusion: What’s Next?
As we approach the inflation report, Bitcoin’s trend will be determined by the print’s deviation from expectations. If CPI is in line or comes in cooler, the market might see a rally to $136,000 potentially exceeding that target into early 2026 as institutional demand and liquidity remain strong.
A hot CPI could still see short term consolidation around $115,000-$120,000. But Glover and technical models suggest any dip could be temporary and healthy and reinforce the bullish long term view.
Summary
Bitcoin has a new all-time high above $120K with 28% YTD as geopolitical uncertainty and technical momentum drive the move. Analysts including Ledn CEO John Glover believe the rally has legs to $136,000 in 2025 with Elliott wave confirmation and growing institutional inflows. But the upcoming US CPI print poses upside or downside risk. If inflation cools, Bitcoin will accelerate, if not the market will take a breather.
FAQs
Why did Bitcoin break all-time high at $120K?
A combination of trade tensions from US tariffs and technical exhaustion reset led to the big breakout.
How will inflation impact Bitcoin’s next move?
If June CPI and core CPI is cooler, markets expect earlier Fed rate cuts; supporting more BTC gains. A hotter print could flip risk sentiment.
Is $136K by year-end realistic?
Ledn CEO John Glover believes the price wave structure is aligning to $136K by year-end with continued ETF inflows and institutional demand.
What could stop the rally?
A hotter CPI, more trade friction or on-chain selling by whales or exchanges could see short term consolidation or a deeper pullback.
What are the levels to watch?
Key levels are support at $115K-$120K; current resistance at $120K-$121K and upside to the $136K target.
Glossary
All-Time High (ATH): highest price an asset has ever been.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): measure of the change in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services.
Core CPI: CPI excluding food and energy prices for more stable inflation.
Elliott-Wave Theory: technical analysis method that identifies price patterns in cyclical wave structures.
ETF Inflows: capital flowing into exchange-traded funds; a sign of investor demand.
On-Chain Data: blockchain analytics including transaction volumes; wallet flows.
Sources
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