As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,600 while altcoins are posting noticeable losses. A recent attempt to break higher ended at $94,696, causing a broader pullback across the crypto market. The surge seen earlier in the week quickly lost momentum, triggering renewed concerns over a deeper correction for altcoins. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has called on Russia to halt its military actions, adding more geopolitical pressure to an already sensitive economic backdrop. But among the noise, the number 369 may be the most relevant figure for crypto traders right now.
The Halving Cycle and Bitcoin’s Historical Patterns
According to analyst Quinten, Bitcoin typically reaches its market peak an average of 480 days after a halving event. With 369 days now behind us since the last halving, historical cycles suggest that the real top may still be ahead. This implies we are in the latter phase of an accumulation period, not the end of the bull market. As noted by Dey There, current volatility does not necessarily contradict this narrative—it could be a temporary distortion caused by macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly ongoing trade and tariff developments.
Institutional Demand Shows Signs of Revival
Despite the market’s hesitation, Bitcoin ETFs have already seen more than $2.2 billion in net inflows this week. That level of demand signals renewed institutional interest after months of lackluster performance. Many see this as a potential pivot point, where long-term investors re-enter the market with conviction. The influx supports the argument that Bitcoin’s fundamental strength is intact, even as price action remains indecisive.
Altcoins Under Pressure, But Outlook May Improve
Most altcoins are currently in the red, with daily declines averaging over 3%. This weakness isn’t entirely surprising, given lingering fears over U.S. economic policy and unclear signals from the Federal Reserve. While Fed members continue to dampen expectations of interest rate cuts, at least President Trump appears to be refraining from applying further pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, preserving some stability.
Market Analysts Expect Trend Shifts Ahead
Prominent trader Michael Poppe suggests that the current drop across markets mirrors a broader correction that also includes gold. He shared a chart highlighting a potential shift in trend dynamics, noting that the same underlying sentiment could soon trigger a rebound in altcoins. In his view, if the current downward move continues briefly, it may set the stage for more robust support zones and an eventual recovery.
A Tipping Point for the Crypto Cycle
With halving dynamics, rising ETF flows, and shifting investor psychology converging, the market appears to be approaching a pivotal moment. Analysts at Dey There believe that while current movements are choppy, the underlying structure is forming for a possible breakout in the coming months. As always, timing the top remains difficult, but history suggests that the biggest moves may still be ahead.
References
CryptoQuant – Historical Bitcoin Halving Data
Quinten via X
Michael Poppe via X
Bloomberg – ETF Inflow Reports
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